The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war that began militarily with the violation of the sovereignty of a European country, from the fateful moment when the first convoys of the Russian army invaded Ukrainian lands in order to control all land borders and sea accesses, as well as nuclear power plants while avoiding targeting gas pipelines carrying Russian gas to Europe, this invasion raised once-pent-up European fears and concerns over near-total dependence vis-à-vis Russian energy supplies.

The series of economic sanctions and its growing list, at the insistence of the United States of America, affects the most important resources of the Russian economy, namely oil and gas, in order to curb the expansionist tendency of Russia and defeat it militarily in a highly strategic zone for the transit of gas as well as the world’s most important cereal production.

The dangerous escalations at the international level after the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, then the blackmail by the threat of world famine if the international community does not give in to the flagrant violation of international law and its repercussions on the security of energy supplies of Europe made its decision to sever economic, commercial and energy ties with Russia hard, forcing it to temporize its disengagement with Russia in precise stages according to priorities and capabilities.

In the short, medium and long term, the European Union should take precautionary measures to be able to gradually replace Russian oil and gas, and find more reliable and safer alternatives.

The importance of countries of the Gulf and the south of the Mediterranean basin appear crucial as suppliers of credibility and an alternative of confidence in times of crisis.

For oil, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the State of Kuwait can offset the Russian offer, and here we stress the importance of rehabilitating and respecting these countries as allies, given their concerns for security in the Arab Gulf region in the face of Iranian threats and its interference through destabilization and terrorism operations.

Contrary to what many analysts say Iran cannot meet European energy needs, we find that even thinking about it as a solution is a strategic sin because it is a country that practices blackmail as a policy. expansionist, and remains a staunch ally of the Russia-China axis, this was evident through the marathon negotiations on the nuclear agreement, where at each stage Iran is waiting for Russia’s approval to move forward, these negotiations which even resulted in a contract will remain hostage to the bidding of the Iranian regime and its future closely linked to the political changes of the United States of America, whether at the top in the White House or in Congress.
Therefore, counting on Iran as an energy supplier is a risky bet, because at the slightest misunderstanding between the USA and Iran, Europe will return to the zero point of its energy transition and this could dangerously hinder its energy disengagement with Russia.

The European Union and Switzerland must take the following measures:
– Replace Russian oil with oil from the Arab Gulf States.
– Short term: Supply liquefied gas from the United States of America.
– Medium-term: Resurrect gas pipeline projects in the south of the Mediterranean basin, emphasizing the importance of connecting Nigerian gas fields to the European continent through the projects NIGAL Trans-Saharan gas pipeline and Galsi Gasdotto Algeria Sardegna Italia.

These two projects will ensure the supply of gas to Europe via the Gas Pipeline linking Nigeria-Niger-Algeria-Italy, and from there to Switzerland, Slovenia, Germany, Poland and Eastern European countries. Is. For the success of the project, a strategic, political, economic and security partnership must be established according to the win-win formula to prevent the Moscow-Beijing axis from dominating the Sahel region.

– Long term: A global plan for the local development of renewable energies and the relaunch of the DESERTEC project for the production of solar energy in the Sahara, in North Africa.

The strategic importance of these projects goes beyond the economic and commercial aspects in order to confer a real partnership and a common destiny to the countries of the Mediterranean basin and the Gulf, a motor of development and peace that will positively affect and even accelerate the resolution of regional crises, particularly in Libya and Mali.

Investments in energy, as well as in defense, mitigate the economic downturn caused by the rise in raw materials, open a new page in the history of North-South relations and remove the specter of control and domination by malevolent forces of strategic countries in the regions of the Arabian Gulf and North and Sub-Saharan Africa…

Sarhane Saadi
Founder and CEO
SATAS International for Strategic Studies